Will 600 sick passengers sink cruise prices?

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Another stomach-churning disaster has hit a cruise ship, and while it's bad news for the industry, it could lead to lower prices for consumers willing to take a cruise, some experts say.

A Royal Caribbean ship on a 10-day cruise had to come back to shore two days early because more than 600 people on the ship got sick, the cruise line announced Sunday. Guests and crew on the Explorer of the Seas ship reported vomiting and diarrhea. 'After consultation between our medical team and representatives of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we think the right thing to do is to bring our guests home early, and use the extra time to sanitize the ship even more thoroughly,' the cruise line wrote in a statement.

It's not the first mishap that has befallen the industry recently. In February of last year, Carnival's infamous 'poop cruise' took place, during which the ship, Triumph, lost power, leaving travelers with no working toilets or air-conditioning. A year earlier, the Costa Concordia (operated by a subsidiary of Carnival) ran aground in Italy, killing dozens of people. 'These aren't good things for the industry,' says Andy Brennan, an analyst with research firm IBISWorld. 'Especially when these incidents come up year after year.'

What sometimes happens after a disaster is a short-term lowering of prices to entice people to cruise, Brennan explains. 'Companies do this so they can fill up the rooms,' he says. Indeed in the wake of the Costa Concordia disaster (and a couple of other incidents that happened around that time), Louis Ramirez, senior editor at DealNews.com , says that within a few weeks, prices fell roughly 10% and by the next month a little more. He says that, in general after a big incident makes the news, prices will fall in about a week (you will see a handful of deals) and sometimes more deals as time goes on.

Also see 'Cruise prices sink to all-time lows'

To be sure, Brennan cautions that dramatic price drops (or any price drops) may not materialize after this most recent disaster for a few reasons: (1) The company has dealt with the issue seemingly quickly and effectively, (2) compared with other recent mishaps, this one is milder, and (3) this mishap is not garnering as much media attention as previous incidents. He also says that the economy has a much bigger impact on this industry's pricing than do problems like this one. Ramirez says that he doesn't expect this single incident will lead to price drops unless other incidents happen on its heels or it stays in the news. And John Lovell, the president of Travel Leaders Leisure Group, says that cruise bookings are so far still very strong, though he adds that 'cruise lines will address prices if they see a softness.' Royal Caribbean did not respond to a request for comment.

Still, this new news is likely troubling to the industry, which has seen a rapid recovery in recent months (on Monday, Royal Caribbean posted a fourth-quarter profit of $7 million buoyed by increased bookings, compared with a loss of $393 million during the same quarter last year). Only about 24% of the U.S. population has ever cruised, according to the Cruise Lines International Association, and the industry wants to grow. And Brennan explains that while many repeat cruisers probably aren't that deterred by incidents like these - 'they realize these are isolated incidents' - they may have more of an impact on new cruisers. Indeed, a Harris Interactive poll done after the Carnival poop-cruise incident found that those who had never cruised were far more wary of trying a cruise than those who were cruise veterans: 25% of the never-cruised agreed with the statement that cruises were worry-free, compared with more than half of cruise veterans. What's more, 58% of the never-cruisers said they were less likely to take a cruise than in the year prior vs. 43% of cruise veterans. And, of course, softer demand can lead cruise lines to drop prices. But for now, we just have to wait and see if that happens with prices.