Nate Silver Predicts GOP has 60 Percent Chance to Regain Senate in 2014

Statistician guru and ESPN's FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-Chief Nate Silverpredicted on Sunday that the Republican Party has about a 60 percent chance of winning six additional seats to regain control of the Senate in 2014, with West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas being the Democrat-held seats that are most likely to be picked up by Republicans in November. In fact, Silver gives Republicans a 90 percent chance of winning West Virginia and South Dakota.

'When FiveThirtyEight last issued a U.S. Senate forecast - way back in July - we concluded the race for Senate control was a toss-up,' Silver wrote on his FiveThirtyEight blog on Sunday. 'That was a little ahead of the conventional wisdom at the time, which characterized the Democrats as vulnerable but more likely than not to retain the chamber.'

Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats' position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama's approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.

Silver, however, added that the Republican Party's path to take over the Senate is ' slightly complicated' because the GOP has to defend two seats: Georgia and Kentucky.

In Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is being challenged by Alison Lundergan Grimes, a Democrat. 'His path to survival could resemble that of the Democratic leader, Harry Reid, who prevailed in Nevada in 2010 with similarly poor approval ratings after a brutal campaign,' Silver writes. 'We give McConnell a 75 percent chance of holding the seat.'

Georgia, on the other hand, could be a better opportunity for Democrats if Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn, wins the Democratic nomination. 'Famous political families don't have the same name-recognition deficit to overcome and can sometimes tap into their families' networks to raise funds and staff their campaigns,' Silver writes.

Nate Silver's projections rely on the use of algorithms, which are based on factors such as the national environment, candidate quality, state partisanship, incumbency and head-to-head polls. Using these factors, he is able is able to assess the probability of the Democratic or Republican candidate winning each seat.

Here are Silver's predictions for the 36 states up for grabs in 2014 courtesy of the FiveThirtyEight blog: